Since the global COVID‑19 pandemic, health experts have watched infectious diseases with heightened vigilance. Among these is mpox (formerly known as monkeypox): a zoonotic viral disease that recently reignited global concern. With outbreaks declared as international emergencies by the WHO, the question on many minds is: Could mpox become the next pandemic? This article dives deep into its origins, current trajectory, risks, and preventive strategies.

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🧬 What Is Mpox?

Mpox is caused by an orthopoxvirus related to smallpox. The disease was first recognized in humans in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It can be transmitted via:

• Close skin-to-skin or respiratory contact

• Contact with contaminated materials (e.g., bedding)

• Animal-to-human transmission (e.g., bites from infected animals) 

Symptoms typically begin with fever, headache, muscle aches, swollen lymph nodes, followed by a distinctive rash that develops into pustules. Lesions can be numerous or occasionally present as a single sore, particularly around the genitals or in the mouth .

There are two primary clades:

• Clade I (Central African): Historically more severe, with fatality rates up to ~3%, and recent outbreaks showing higher transmissibility.

• Clade II (West African): Generally milder, with mortality <0.1%, but responsible for wide global spread during the 2022–23 outbreak.

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🌍 Current Mpox Situation: A Snapshot

Global Trends

• As of June 10, 2025, over 138,000 lab-confirmed cases and 328 deaths have occurred worldwide since 2022.

• While the Clade II outbreak declined and the PHEIC ended in May 2023, Clade I (including subclade Ib) has surged in Central/East Africa since September 2023.

• The WHO reaffirmed mpox as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) in June 2025.

Active Transmission Zones

• Central/Eastern Africa (DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, etc.): Ongoing community transmission driven by Clade I and Ib.

• Global spread: Travel-related cases in Australia, India, Belgium, and multiple European countries.

• Sierra Leone is experiencing a sharp spike in cases, raising fear of further spread.

Notable Observations

• A novel Clade I variant, clade Ib, is spreading via human-to-human contact, especially sexual networks, akin to Clade IIb.

• Limited sustained transmission is reported outside Africa, though importations continue.

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🔥 Why Mpox Is Raising Pandemic Alarm

Several factors make experts cautious:

1. Increased Human-to-Human Spread

Recent Clade I and Ib strains are showing sustained person-to-person transmission—often via close or sexual contact—with longer chains of infection.

2. Mutations Promoting Adaptation

Researchers from the University of Surrey warn Clade I variants may be evolving to adapt better to humans. APOBEC3-linked mutations in Clade 1a/1b hint at possible higher transmissibility.

3. Animal Reservoirs

Unlike COVID‑19, mpox has a zoonotic reservoir (rodents, squirrels), which means it cannot be completely eradicated. Spillover events remain a continual risk.

4. Severe Outcomes in Vulnerable Populations

Clade I has a higher fatality rate (~3–7%) and affects children, pregnant women, and immunocompromised individuals more severely.

5. Global Spread Despite Monitoring

Although mpox remains less transmissible than respiratory viruses like COVID‑19, exported cases continue to occur, and many countries lack robust diagnostics or vaccines.

6. Diagnostic & Treatment Gaps

Surveillance and testing remain fragmented in many endemic regions, while diagnostics and therapeutics are limited in supply .

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❓ Could Mpox Become the Next Pandemic?

A. Transmissibility

• Mpox remains less transmissible than COVID‑19; transmission requires close contact, not mere proximity .

• For Clade I, human-to-human spread is increasing, but still occurs via skin lesions, fluids, or prolonged contact .

Experts say the risk of global spread is non-zero, but widespread pandemic remains unlikely—unless mutations significantly alter transmission dynamics .

B. Immunity & Vaccines

• Smallpox vaccines like JYNNEOS/MVA-BN and ACAM2000 are effective prophylactic measures.

• Populations previously vaccinated for smallpox retain some residual immunity, particularly among older adults .

• Vaccine access remains limited in Africa, though over 720,000 doses have been deployed in DRC .

C. Public Health Response

• WHO and CDC recommend contact tracing, isolation of cases, and ring vaccination.

• International coordination through CEPI, GPMB, and WHO emphasizes early detection and preparedness.

D. Global Awareness

• Mpox risks are currently under the radar, especially compared to COVID‑19, but experts warn complacency could be dangerous.

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🧠 Expert Opinions: Pandemic or Not?

• A Reuters survey of scientists and public-health experts highlights that widespread outbreaks outside Africa remain unlikely, but the epidemic in Central Africa is serious .

• Dr. Hayden (USA) said, “The short answer is no... mpox is much harder to spread than the virus that causes COVID‑19”.

• However, Nature Medicine and University of Surrey researchers caution that Clade I mutations may enhance transmissibility, stressing the need for urgent global action.

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🛡 How to Stay Safe

For Individuals

• Avoid close contact with patients, their lesions, bedding, or personal items.

• Stick to hand hygiene, disinfect shared surfaces, and avoid sharing bedding or utensils.

• At-risk individuals should consider vaccination and monitor symptoms post-travel.

• Seek medical attention if symptoms appear, and isolate at home until recovery .

For Clinicians & Public Health Officials

• Vigilance in diagnosis—mpox can resemble chickenpox, herpes, or other rashes.

• Empower laboratories: strengthen diagnostic capacity in endemic regions.

• Enhance surveillance systems in Africa and globally.

• Bolster vaccine delivery: support ring vaccination, at-risk group inoculation, and equitable allocation .

• Invest in therapeutic development and antiviral accessibility .

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🧪 Innovation & Future Preparedness

1. AI-Assisted Diagnostics

Innovative tools like AI-powered symptom checkers are being developed to detect mpox lesions early. Some report accuracy rates above 90% in clinical trials.

2. Social Media Monitoring

Tools that track mpox discourse online help identify misinformation, guide public health communications, and monitor sentiment.

3. Genomic Surveillance

Monitoring mutations in circulating strains (Clade I variants) helps anticipate viral behavior and guide vaccine updates.

4. Global Preparedness

Reports from GPMB and others recommend extending pandemic preparedness to include zoonotic potential diseases like mpox alongside filovirus and flu threats .

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✅ Conclusion: Is Mpox the Next Pandemic?

Unlikely—but not impossible.

• Mpox does not yet match the transmissibility of airborne viruses like COVID‑19.

• However, Clade I mutations, endemic reservoirs, and gaps in global surveillance raise serious concerns.

• Proactive measures—early detection, vaccines, treatment equity, digital tools, and global readiness—are our best defense.

While mpox should not incite panic, it demands strategic attention and preparation. By learning from COVID‑19 and acting decisively, the world can prevent mpox from evolving into the next global crisis.

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